Bitcoin’s Current 18% Retrace Is Right on Schedule and Is Actually Good News: Here’s Why

Bitcoin's Current 18% Retrace Is Right on Schedule and Is Actually Good News: Here's Why

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the first phase of its halving and is on track with analysts’ predictions, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital has revealed.

According to a tweet, Bitcoin’s 18% retrace in the past weeks was expected, as similar slumps occurred before the second and third halvings. This indicates that BTC would repeat many of the incidents witnessed in previous events, including the post-halving surge that would propel the asset to new highs.

Bitcoin Is Right on Schedule

The three phases of the Bitcoin halving are the final pre-halving retrace, the re-accumulation, and the parabolic uptrend. The first stage usually occurs 28 to 14 days before the event and can last for weeks. The second phase comes after the retrace has bottomed and can last up to five months, while the third can last for more than a year.

During the halving in 2016, the retrace was 38% and spanned over four days. In 2020, it was 20% deep and lasted eight weeks. With BTC roughly 13 days from the halving, the asset has declined approximately 18% over the past three weeks.


Rekt Capital noted that this cycle has exhibited some qualities from both the 2016 and 2020 halvings and, as a result, may repeat pieces of their pre-halving price tendencies.

Nevertheless, Rekt Capital said the goals of the pre-halving retrace period include offering one final bargain-buying opportunity, setting up the next phase in this particular cycle, and forming the range low of the future Re-Accumulation Range.

The Onset of the Re-Accumulation Phase

On-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin may be at the onset of the re-accumulation phase. With the asset’s resistance level at $70,000, Rekt Capital says the market may have established the high re-accumulation range.

Since re-accumulation comes after the retrace has bottomed, it is also possible that the pre-halving bottom is in. The goal now, according to Rekt Capital, is for BTC to move sideways up until the halving and beyond.

Notably, this is the first time the re-accumulation range is developing around the new all-time high area. This may shorten the duration of the phase and cause the range to take the shape of the regular sideways movement the market has seen so far.

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