Institutional adoption is gaining momentum following the introduction of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January, and Pantera anticipates a convergence of positive factors, including the upcoming halving in late April 2024. The hedge fund believes that this propel the next bull market.
Pantera further identified the current phase as the onset of the fourth major cycle, predicting a potentially strong uptrend in crypto spanning 18 to 24 months.
Half-Trillion Dollar Untapped Opportunity
In its latest investor note, Pantera stated that it is a significant opportunity for Bitcoin, estimating its potential value at half a trillion dollars.
The hedge fund projected that if decentralized finance (DeFi) on Bitcoin reaches proportions similar to Ethereum’s, the total value of DeFi applications could reach $225 billion, constituting 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap. This estimate ranges from $72 billion to $450 billion, assuming no change in Bitcoin’s current market cap.
Furthermore, Pantera suggested that the leading DeFi application on Bitcoin could eventually reach a valuation of $20 billion, comprising 2.2% of Bitcoin’s value and potentially ranking among the top 10 most valuable assets in the crypto ecosystem.
Despite Bitcoin’s near return to a trillion-dollar asset status, Pantera asserted that a significant half-trillion-dollar opportunity remains untapped.
“Bitcoin’s age of neglect may finally be coming to an end. In the post-ETF era, Wall Street is finally realizing the obvious about Bitcoin as an asset. The next era will be about Bitcoin as technology and the re-ignited excitement to build for Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin DeFi So Far
Maximalists have strongly advocated for Bitcoin to retain its status solely as a digital asset, opposing its evolution into an ecosystem that facilitates blockchain applications like DeFi and NFTs. But 2023 saw a psychological shift within the Bitcoin community and renewed appetite from investors for DeFi on Bitcoin.
Pantera highlighted that the unleashing of fungible and non-fungible assets kicked off the first waves of DeFi and NFT activity on Ethereum and similar early signs are “bubbling to the surface” across the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Furthermore, the distrust stemming from the failures of centralized services like FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, and Genesis of an entire investor cohort in centralized financial platforms, potentially driving them to explore new opportunities in DeFi.
As such, a decentralized financial system appears to be gradually taking shape, with Bitcoin serving as its cornerstone. Pantera also suggested that the potential of this decentralized finance system on Bitcoin could rival or surpass that of Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem, albeit through a distinct evolutionary trajectory.
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