The Bitcoin price has been expected to hit the 6-figure mark for a couple of years now, but this target continues to be elusive for the cryptocurrency. However, with a crypto bull run predicted by experts to be around the corner, the expectations for a 6-figure Bitcoin price have emerged once again. One crypto analyst in particular has taken it a step further, predicting when the Bitcoin price will hit $200,000 based off of historical data.
Bitcoin Power Law And Exponential Decay Theory
In an X (formerly Twitter) post, pseudonymous crypto analyst @apsk32 pointed out a 13-year trend that has held true for Bitcoin since its inception. This trend uses a power law equation and an exponential decay to help pinpoint how high the Bitcoin price will go in each cycle and how low it could possibly drop after.
The Power Law Cycle Cloud, demonstrated by the crypto analyst in a video attached to the X post, showed how high the BTC price has risen and dropped in the last three bull and bear cycles. Using the same trend, the crypto analyst has proposed how high the Bitcoin price will rise.
According to the trend, the crypto analyst believes that the Bitcoin price will break the 6-figure mark and peak just below or at $200,000. The year when this is expected to happen is 2025, which would stick to the established four-year bull cycles for BTC.
Just like the trend predicts how high the price will go, it also shows how low it could drop in the bear market following the bull. It predicts that in 2026, BTC will fall around 57.5% from its $200,000 high to create a low at $85,000.
The crypto analyst further addressed concerns that the Bitcoin price could deviate from this trend. For one, he points out that Bitcoin proponent Micheal Saylor had said that “all your models will be broken!” However, the analyst highlights the fact that the model Saylor eventually presents for BTC also aligns with what the Power Law says.
The analyst also acknowledges the potential of an invalidation, saying, “I’ll watch for an invalidation of the channel. As someone who’s seen the value of their BTC fall by 80% twice, I’m looking for more than ‘this time will be different’.”
As for Bitcoin moving away from the power law and exponential decay trend, the crypto analyst explained, “We don’t have to like this, but we need to respect it.” He further added, “We can hope it will change while staying aware of this 13-year trend.”
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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