Optimistic Outlook Reinforced by Lack of Retail Liquidity

Optimistic Outlook Reinforced by Lack of Retail Liquidity

Bitcoin experienced a notable price uptick in the past few weeks, surpassing the $40,000 mark and reaching its highest point since April 2022. This upward momentum was fueled by an increasing demand from US investors, evidenced by a positive Coinbase premium.

Experts suggest that the next target level for the leading crypto is above $50,000.

Bitcoin Targets $50K to $53K

According to the latest report from CryptoQuant, network activity indicates a potential price target ranging from $50,000 to $53,000, considering Bitcoin’s current value of $43,000. Looking at the long-term perspective, the crypto intelligence platform’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator signals a bullish market.

Additionally, the optimistic outlook is reinforced by the absence of liquidity from retail traders and a record high in the amount of BTC held for over a year. This suggests a positive trajectory for Bitcoin’s price action in the foreseeable future.


CryptoQuant’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin could be aiming for the $50,000 to $53,000 range, as per the valuation perspective derived from network activity.

These thresholds represent the red Metcalfe Price Valuation Band, which evaluates the price of Bitcoin about user activity, specifically active addresses. This band also acted as a resistance level for Bitcoin in April and November of 2021, as well as in April 2022.

Bitcoin Price Valuation Bands: Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Bull Run Far From Its Peak

A short-term correction remains a possibility, given the elevated funding rates and the fact that 86% of the circulating supply is currently profitable. It’s worth noting that historically, such levels have often aligned with local tops.

Although the short-term outlook advises traders to be cautious in the present circumstances, examining the long-term perspective reveals a bullish signal from the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator.

It’s essential to note that the indicator is nearing the Overheated Bull phase (red area), historically associated with either a temporary halt in the price rally or a correction.

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: TradingView

The report further revealed that the crypto market is far from reaching the top of this bull run, considering the fact that whales are not expected to capitalize on profits because there is insufficient exit liquidity from retail traders.

“In general, the lack of liquidity from retail traders, coupled with the fresh all-time high in Bitcoins that haven’t moved for 1+ year, results in an optimistic long-term outlook for Bitcoin’s price action.”

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