Crypto Founder Predicts 30% To 40% Bitcoin Price Correction If SEC Approves ETF


BitMEX co-founder, Arthur Hayes, has published a blog post predicting a specific price correction for Bitcoin following the introduction of the highly anticipated Spot Bitcoin ETF. 

Bitcoin Price Correction Forecast

The former chief executive officer of BitMEX, Hayes has shared valuable insights on the potential price impact for Bitcoin following the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

According to Hayes’s analysis, Bitcoin is projected to experience a 20% to 30% price correction by March 2024. The crypto exchange founder warned that the correction phase could be relatively steep if there is a substantial surge in traders’ interest in Spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

“I expect Bitcoin to experience a healthy 20% to 30% correction from whatever level it has attained by early March. The washout could be even more severe if the slate of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has already commenced trading,” Hayes explained.


Bitcoin slightly below the $44K level today. Chart:

In the blog post, Hayes also predicted a 30% to 40% correction in Bitcoin’s price if the value of the cryptocurrency surges to its previous all-time high in 2021. 

“Imagine if the anticipation of hundreds of billions of fiat flowing into these ETFs at a future date propels Bitcoin above $60,000 and close to its 2021 all-time high of $70,000. I could easily see a 30% to 40% correction due to a dollar liquidity rug pull. This is why I cannot buy Bitcoin until these March decision dates have passed,” the crypto exchange founder stated. 

Potential Impacts Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs 

A crypto enthusiast on X (formerly Twitter) has stated that the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs would have a long-term effect on the crypto space. This may encompass the anticipated rise in Bitcoin’s price as many analysts predict Bitcoin’s value reaching unprecedented heights following the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC. 

“As someone who used to spend all day every day selling ETFs and other financial products to traditional money managers of all shapes and sizes, I can promise you one thing. Even if bullish, most of you are drastically underestimating the long-run impact of crypto ETF approvals,” the X user stated. 

In contrast, crypto investors like Author Hayes disclosed previously that the launch of a Spot Bitcoin ETF could have a potentially negative existential influence on Bitcoin, particularly if ETFs garner more attention from investors

While there are differing views on the impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs on Bitcoin, the final decision on its launch is still pending. The SEC is slated to reveal its verdict on the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF applications by Wednesday, January 10, 2024. 

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